Vulnerability, Resilience and Resource Allocation of Mitigation Measures for Highway Network
|關鍵字:||路網脆弱度;相依性;地理資訊系統;模糊認知圖;Road network vulnerability;interdependency;geographic information system (GIS);fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs)|
Transportation networks have become more complicated because of social progress and population growth. Numerous socio-economic activities are linked to transportation networks and systems. The network failure will increase the travel time and travel cost of users and even force users to cancel their trips. The network failure results in considerable direct damage as well as indirect socio-economic losses. The main reasons causing network failure include natural hazard and man-made hazard. Particularly along with the global climate change, the probabilities of natural disasters increase remarkably because of the incremental magnitude and duration. The coping capacities of transportation network thus become a critical issue in metropolitan area development. Previous literature discussed the determination of vulnerable infrastructures based on the concepts of engineering-oriented urban disaster prevention. However, the definitions, influencing factors and causalities of vulnerability and resilience are absent. The system engineering method is employed to deconstruct the functions and components and to integrate a network and resilience model. Moreover, a systematic simulation approach is utilized to assist decision-makers in understanding the system behavior of urban highway network and identifying the crucial influence factors of network vulnerability and resilience. The Taipei metropolitan area is applied as an empirical study under the threat from earthquake and flood. Fuzzy set is introduced to reflect the uncertainty about external environment and to construct resource allocation models in stages of disaster prevention and recovery, respectively. Sensitivity and scenario analyses are used to explore the policy implications for the improvement of network vulnerability and resilience. Consequently, the suggested strategies are provided for resource allocation and risk assessment of transportation network according to the analytical results.
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