Hybrid wave calculation using modular model and numerical simulation for main harbors of Taiwan (2/4)
|關鍵字:||氣候變遷;設計波;二維數值模式;台灣主要港口;風浪推算;climate change;design wave;2D numerical model;main harbors of Taiwan;wind-wave model|
Design waves for marine structures are commonly determined by extreme analysis on long-term annual maximum wave data. However insufficient data are available for extreme analysis. The problem of insufficient data samples was solved by supplementation of simulated waves which were calculated by ANN wave simulation model developed by the Harbor and Marine Technology Center of Taiwan (IHMT). The accuracy of these wave data samples for extreme analysis should be promoted considering alternative approach and the effect on wave climate by recent global climate change. This project aims to not only establish the Ann wave simulation model for the Suao harbor, but also to develop a new M5 wave model. Comparison on the simulated result by ANN and M5 models with observed data will show the prediction accuracy and applicability of both wave models. A numerical wave model of MIKE 21 SW will be used to calculate waves at both Hualien and Suao harbors for chosen typhoons. The best predictions on wave among ANN, M5 and numerical wave models will be determined by comparing the simulated waves with observed data. Design waves for both Taipei and Keelong harbors will be determined from most accurate wave samples. Responding to the issue of the impact of climate change on marine works proposed by World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure (PIANC), several methods of trend detection is used to determine the trend of long-term observed typhoon’s waves of IHMT. Considering the climate change, applicable standard procedure for design wave was suggested by this research.
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