標題: 台電公司投資計畫之財務可行性評估研究
The Assessment of Financial Feasibility of TPC's Investment Plan
作者: 黃玉霖
Huang, Yu-Lin
國立交通大學土木工程學系
關鍵字: 專案財務評估;evaluation of project finance
公開日期: 2005
摘要: 一般專案計畫之財務評估模式的建立,其分析方法多以「現金流量分析法」為基礎,延展作相關財務比率的探討,這是現今最常使用的分析方式。「現金流量分析法」首重於專案資金成本結構的分析工作,根據專案資金來源之比例與成本進行加權計算,求出專案資金之成本,以做為後續財務評估之基準。經由調整後的現金流量表,來估算出每期的現金流量,並透過「折現還本期法」(PB, Discounted Payback Period)、「淨現值法」(NPV, Net Present Value)及「內部報酬率法」(IRR, Internal Rate of Return)等方式進行財務評估,以提供決策者參與投資與否之參考依據。 然而此類方式,因需要從事相當的預測工作.常使得評估作業困難重重,且未考慮到投資決策過程中的彈性,將可能使得企業在進行投資決策分析時,在面對投資環境變動的不確定情況下,未能充分掌握與反應真正的投資計畫價值。本研究嘗試應用實質選擇權來分析專案整體的投資價值,來補強財務分析的完整性,進而建構出專案投資的財務預警模式,同時保留「現金流量分析法」之分析資訊以作為參考。之後並運用蒙地卡羅模擬分析搭配實質選擇權,以建構專案計畫之財務預警機制,進而協助台電公司進行電廠投資案的可行性評估工作。
We usually adopt the cash flow analysis to set up the financial assessment way of the special project. And then calculate out every financial rate of the project. We need to analysis the structure of capital cost first that if we adopt the cash flow analysis. Then use the cash flow statement after adjusting to estimate out the cash flow of each one. Finally, we can do the financial assessment of the project by use the method of Discounted Payback Period, Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. The result would help the decision maker to decide whether to make the investment or not. But it is usually difficult to assess because this way need to do some prediction work before analysis. We use the Real Option to analyse the whole investment value of the investment project. And build the investment project predicted model with the Monte Carlo Simulation and the method of Real Option.
官方說明文件#: TPC - 546 - 4836 - 9408
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11536/90772
https://www.grb.gov.tw/search/planDetail?id=1183947&docId=225266
顯示於類別:研究計畫


文件中的檔案:

  1. RRPG95020159.pdf