標題: An evaluation of the extended logistic, simple logistic, and gompertz models for forecasting short lifecycle products and services
作者: Trappey, Charles V.
Wu, Hsin-ying
交大名義發表
National Chiao Tung University
關鍵字: extended logistic model;technology forecasting
公開日期: 2007
摘要: Many successful technology forecasting models have been developed but little research has explored the relationship between sample set size and forecast prediction accuracy. This research studies the forecast accuracy of large and small data sets using the simple logisticl, Gompertz, and the extended logistic models. The performance of the models were evaluated using the mean absolute deviation and the root mean square error. A time series dataset of four electronic products and services were used to evaluate the model performance. The result shows that the extended logistic model fits large and small datasets better than the simple logistic and Gompertz models. The findings also show that that the extended logistic model is well suited to predict market growth with limited historical data as is typically the case for short lifecycle products and services.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11536/8979
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84628-976-7_87
ISBN: 978-1-84628-975-0
DOI: 10.1007/978-1-84628-976-7_87
期刊: Complex Systems Concurrent Engineering: Collaboration, Technology Innovation and Sustainability
起始頁: 793
結束頁: 800
顯示於類別:會議論文


文件中的檔案:

  1. 000248899900087.pdf