Supply Chain and Air Cargo Network Design in Response to Global Logistics and Dynamic Demand
|關鍵字:||全球運籌;零組件採購;產品配送;航空貨運運量預測;Global Logistics;Key-component Procurement;Delivery ServiceStrategy;Air Cargo Demand Forecasting|
The challenge of a firm』s operation has been changed from regional competition to global competition. Under global logistics and dynamic economic environment, how to design procurement network and plan product delivery service strategy to effectively integrate suppliers and customers in geographical regions around the world has become an important issue for a high-tech product firm to achieve cost effective. In addition, air cargo demand has been dramatically increased due to its speed and convenience for delivering high-tech products. The growth of air cargo demand depends on the specialization and evolution of industrial structures all over the world. In other words, only if a model for predicting air cargo demand incorporates the influences of world trade due to above influences can fully account for the dynamic aspects of demand changes. Moreover, the decisions on airfare, flight frequency and aircraft type affect the cost and quality of air cargo services. A profit-maximizing air cargo carrier must investigate the impacts of the dynamic environment on air cargo demand and trade-off between the cost of providing service and the revenue generated by the service, when determining the airfare, flight frequency and aircraft type on its network. The proposed study attempts to explore above issues by formulating a series of models. This study attempts to apply network design models, non-linear mixed integer programming (MIP) models, interactive programming techniques, disaggregate choice and demand forecast models to develop a series of models on analyzing high-tech firms』 decisions, such as suppliers』 selection, key-component procurement size, product delivery strategies and air cargo carriers』 network design, in response to dynamic economic environment and global logistics. The three-year study includes three related topics. In the first year, this study formulates a high-tech firms』 optimal suppliers selection and procurement size programming model by considering the customer demand, locations of suppliers and plants as well as key-component discount and prices offered by various suppliers. Then, this study devises a reliability evaluation method for assessing how well the results of a procurement strategy will work under future possible demand fluctuations; and then proposes a fine-tuning method for redesigning the procurement network in response to unreliable supply situations. Furthermore, this study formulates a key-component supply model and presents an interactive supplier selection, price and procurement size procedure to facilitate bargaining interactions necessitated by supplier-manufacturing firm partnership agreements. In the second year, this study attempts to optimize a delivery service strategy for high-tech product firms by considering dynamic demand, demand-supply interaction, and production and shipping economies. First, this study employs the analytical method to formulate the supply cost function by considering the time-dependent demand of various customers in different regions. Then, this study formulates and incorporates disaggregate choice models to estimate customer demand for firm』s product. Furthermore, this study develops a MIP model for determining the optimal delivery service cycles for customers in different regions and the assignment of plants to customers, taking into account demand-supply interactions. In the third year, this study not only investigates the relationship between air cargo demand and world trade due to the specialization and evolution of industrial structure around the world but also proposes an airfare, flight frequency and aircraft type programming model for airline』s cargo network by considering close demand-supply interaction. This study formulates a disaggregate choice model to analyze the impacts of product values, distance as well as supply attributes, such as airfare and flight frequency on the optimal shipping mode choice. The air cargo demand is estimated by aggregating individual firm』s choice based on the probability distribution of the value of products, which are made in different industries. Then, this study formulates a mathematical programming model to determine flight frequencies and basic airfares on individual routes of an air cargo network with demand-supply interactions by maximizing the carrier』s total profit. Finally, a series of case studies about the selected high-tech product firms and air cargo carrier will be provided to illustrate the results and the application of the developed models. Consequently, the expected results of the developed models can provide basis on studies regarding procurement decisions, product delivery strategy and air cargo network design. Furthermore, the results may shed light on high-tech product firms and air cargo carriers regarding their decision-making on key-component procuring, product delivery strategy, marketing and operating strategies under global logistics and dynamic economic environment.
|Appears in Collections:||Research Plans|