The Impact of Transfer Fare Discount Policy between MRT and Bus on Transfer Ridership
|關鍵字:||轉乘優惠;時間序列分析;介入模式;Transfer Discount;Time Series Analysis;Intervention Model|
According to the statistical data, the transfer ridership between MRT and bus is increasing year by year. TRTC(Taipei Rapid Transit Corporation) has carried out a series of transfer discount policy since 1996, and few significant events occurred during that period, such as metro line wsa open to traffic and disasters. The increasing transfer ridership between MRT and bus is composed by some events, so we can’t easily realize any impact of the events on transfer ridership. The objective of this study is to discuss how much did those policies affect the transfer ridership between MRT and bus. In order to fulfill this objective, a model in Time Series Analysis called ARIMA is used to build the Transfer Ridership Growth Model. Transfer discount policy, the metro line was open to traffic and disasters are considered as significant events, and intervention model is used to analyze the transfer ridership affected by all events in this study. The short-term transfer discount policies immediately result in increasing capacity, nevertheless, the increase of whole capacity is limited. Moreover, the long-term transfer discount policies delayed the effects but have more obvious effects on increasing the transfer ridership .