標題: 影響台鐵平交道事故因素之研究
Exploring the Factors Affecting the Level Crossing Accidents of TRA
作者: 黃維崧
Wei-Sung Huang
張新立
Hsin-Li Chang
運輸與物流管理學系
關鍵字: 平交道;平交道事故;普瓦松迴歸模式;負二項迴歸模式;Level crossing;Accidents;Poisson regression model;Negative binomial regression model
公開日期: 2005
摘要: 台鐵平交道事故頻繁且損失嚴重,但在改善經費有限之情況下,如何針對影響平交道事故發生之重要因素進行改善以發揮資源最大效益,一直未受到有關當局應有之重視。過去對平交道事故之研究多著重於管制型態或是人為疏失的分析,甚少將與鐵路交會公路之線型、路口幾何型態、來往交通流量與車流組成等因素列入考慮,以致無法對影響鐵路平交道事故發生原因有較為周詳之掌握,並提供較為具體之安全改善方向。 有鑑於上述需要,本研究以台鐵平交道中所佔比例達七成以上的幹線平交道作觀察對象。在全數將近五百處的幹線平交道中扣除少數資料不全的筆數後,共蒐集到469處平交道的幾何型態、管制方式、及平交道車流運作資料,並結合這些平交道從民國86年1月到93年6月間共603筆的平交道事故資料,嘗試以普瓦松(Poisson)迴歸模式與負二項(Negative Binomial)迴歸模式來探索平交道屬性與平交道事故發生次數及型態之關係。 研究結果顯示,第一種平交道因為有看柵人員的管理,使得其安全性優於三甲平交道;半封平交道因為不開放四輪車輛通行,因此沒有未保持淨空的事故紀錄;專用平交道因為數量少,對事故沒有顯著的影響能力;平交道越寬其事故紀錄越低;具有彎道特徵與鄰近路段有無號誌路口的平交道,因為公路車輛行經至此都會減速慢行,如此使得駕駛人容易察覺到平交道的管制狀況並作反應,結果使得事故紀錄比一般平交道要來的好;具有坡度特徵與鐵公路夾角越小的平交道,用路人可能因為經過這些較危險的路段會趨向謹慎駕駛,如此使得具有這些特徵的平交道其事故紀錄也比其他平交道要佳;平交道鄰近路段有T字路口,會因公路引道長度不足而對未保持淨空事件有顯著的正向影響,但T字路口對過往車輛有減速過彎的效果,使得對機車涉入事件數有顯著的負向影響;尖峰大型車流量一方面是曝光量指標,另一方面車體龐大導致運轉靈活性差,在平交道上易生事故,因此跟事故件數呈現顯著的正相關。 研究中發現的影響平交道事故因素多具有相當合理的解釋能力與統計顯著指標,值得政府與台鐵加以重視並作好相關的安全防護措施,以減少平交道事故對鐵路系統與社會大眾的損害頻次和程度。
Highway-railway level crossing accidents result in enormous loss for railway companies and society, but the budget for upgrading level crossings is limited. Few studies have been undertaken to explore the relationship between the occurrence of level crossing accidents and the highway geometry a well as the types of traffic control, and help the government to understand which level crossings need to be improved first. This study was conducted to explore the relationship between the occurrence of railway accidents at level crossings and their geometric as well as environmental characteristics. The geometric and environmental characteristics of 469 Taiwan Railway Administration (TRA) main line level crossings and 603 level crossing accidents occurred during the period from January 1997 to June 2004 were collected for empirical study purpose. The Poisson and Negative Binomial regression models were then employed respectively to explore the factors which affect the occurrence of level crossing accidents. The study results indicated that the accident records for Grade 1 Level Crossings were better than those for the Grade 3 Level Crossings. Wider level crossings were found to have less accident frequencies than narrow level crossings do. Level crossings with curve, slope, unsignalized control, and acute intersection angle between railway and highway appeared to have less accident occurrence than their counterpart level crossings This might be the case that drivers would slow down their speed and drive more carefully when they drive through these level railway crossings. Level crossings with T intersections endanger large vehicles from keeping enough space off tracks, but they are safe for motorcyclists because all riders need to decelerate in order to make a turning at the level crossings, which makes motorcyclists to stop their motorbikes more easily as encountering dangerous situations. As anticipated, some significant factors, that affect the accident risk of railway level crossings, were found in this study. It provides a set of valuable information for TRA to improve the operation safety of their railway level crossings more effectively.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009332525
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/79447
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