The Establishment of Potential Parking Demand Estimation Model
|關鍵字:||停車需求;潛在停車需求;多元迴歸模式;parking demand;potential parking demand;Multiple regression model|
The parking demand and supply are the fundamental information for the parking management. All the strategies of the parking management, such as the increase of supply or the decrease of demand, rely on this information. Therefore, the governmental offices in charge of the parking management regularly find non-governmental agencies, advisory companies or schools to survey the supply of the parking spaces and the amount of the parking demand. In the surveyed area, if the parking demand is less than the parking supply, the amount is the real parking need; instead, if the parking demand is greater than the parking supply, the drivers would adopt substitute methods. For instance, they drive to a farther location to park, or use other tools of transportation. Under that circumstance, the parking demand does not equal the surveyed amount. Thus, the potential parking demand must be taken into consideration. When evaluating the potential parking demand, the causes of the flawed satisfaction and the categories of the parking demand must be included. The causes of the flawed satisfaction result from the insufficient parking supply that makes the parking inconvenience. The categories of the parking demand can be observed in two situations. One is that drivers do not purchase vehicles as a result of the parking inconvenience, and the other is that drivers would not like to drive their own vehicles. This research applies surveys of telephone calls and multiple regression model to analyze the potential parking demand model under various categories. Nevertheless, the uses of land in Taipei City are mostly combinations of several types. Thus, the variables of time in the same spaces should be taken into consideration. In addition, the ratio of supply and demand, searching time, walking time and the parking fee should be seen as the variables which all affect the establishment of the potential parking demand model. A non-linear model with single variable would be applied to measure the potential parking demand model as the conclusion. After the total parking demand is calculated, the ratio of the potential supply and demand including the potential parking demand would be obtained. According to the variations of the ratio of supply and demand of the service level, the research would be able to reflect the real parking situation in Taipei City.