標題: 交通建設BOT計畫特許年期與特許年期調整機制構建
Concession Period for Transportation BOT Projects and Its Adjustment Mechanism
作者: 陳孟慧
Chen Meng-Hui
馮正民
康照宗
運輸與物流管理學系
關鍵字: BOT計畫;特許年期;隨機模擬;BOT;concession period;stochastic simulation
公開日期: 2004
摘要: BOT計畫之特許年期是財務計畫中重要的參數,而且是補貼機制項目之一。由於此特許年期課題在相關研究與文獻少有科學性與系統性的討論,因此本研究透過相關理論研究分析,構建BOT計畫之特許年期訂定與調整機制。 本文以政府角度為主,兼顧特許公司報酬率與營運風險下,構建特許年期決定模式,並利用營收隨機的模擬方式,求出各種營收不確定下之最適特許年期。此外,以民間企業期望內部報酬率,作為特許年期調整的主要變數,構建特許年期調整機制。為了驗證本研究模式之可用性,本文利用停車場與港埠計畫案進行簡例分析。 本研究所提出之特許年期模式,可以提供政府單位在考量計畫案可能營收之風險下,與民間企業應分擔之風險,計算出最適的特許年期區間。該區間可作為BOT計畫招商時,特許年期決定之參考。特許年期調整機制,由政府決定民間企業適當之收益上限與下限,在議約階段列入考量,作為日後特許計畫實際營運後,營收與預期情況不同時,調整特許年期之參考。
The purpose of this study was to establish an analytical model for determing the concession period and propose its adjustment mechanism for subsidy policy. The concession period is not only a critical factor for evaluating financial plan in BOT (Build, Operation, and Transfer) projects, but also the subsidy mechanism. To determine the concession period for either BOT projects is an important issue for public utility or private sector, however this issue has seldom been explored according to the past studies. This study used a stochastic approach to take the operation revenue as a stochastic variable to evaluate concession period of BOT projects from the public sector viewpoint. We have developed the analytical concession period model based on the maximum internal rate of return of private sector. Based on the risk-sharing concept, the concession period will be interval values rather than a fixed value. The model also showed a characteristic that is large different in concession period and large changed in revenue. Two parties, government and private sector, determine the optimal concession period based on the interval values for BOT projects through the negotiation procession. Also the concession period can be adjusted by public sector according to the different revenue. This study conducted a case study to analyze the stochastic concesseion period model and to find the interval values of concession period for two parties, respectively. The case study showed that the analytical concession period model could be used to determe the concession period for BOT projects.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009236506
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/77232
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