Determining Capacity-Booking Fees in a Stochastic Price Scenario
|關鍵字:||預約;產能預約;半導體;需求預測;booking;capacity reservation;semiconductor;demand forecast|
Demand forecast from customers are usually boosted. Most previous research focused on how to encourage customers to “tell the truth”. This paper argues that customers may not fully “know the truth”. The future demand to customer is generally modeled as a random variable. Telling the mean of the random variable does not imply the truth (the realized demand) has been declared. This paper presents an approach to resolve the “truth-telling” issue of demand forecast. We assume that the capacity-buyers and capacity-sellers have a consensus about aggregate future demand, which is a random variable. This approach suggests that customers pay a booking fee to reserve future capacity. Pricing the booking fee plays a role to motivate customers to make rational demand forecast through booking. Capacity-sellers can thus optimize their profits by make an appropriate pricing decision. This research presents a method for pricing the capacity-booking fee, which is illustrated by a case in semiconductor foundry industry.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|
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