Susceptibility Analysis for Landslide Dam Development
|關鍵字:||堰塞湖;天然壩;堰塞湖目錄;山崩後堰塞湖形成潛感;堰塞湖形成潛感;堰塞湖形成潛勢圖;羅吉斯迴歸;landslide dam;landslide dam inventory;susceptibility analysis for landslide dam development;logistic regression|
In Taiwan, earthquakes or rainfalls caused many natural dam lakes. If these dams break, the debris will flow to downstream and become terrible disasters. Susceptibility analysis for landslide dam formation may be helpful for the disaster prevention. This study aims to collect and establish a more complete inventory of landslide dam, establish an appropriate method to evaluate the probability of forming landslide dam and prepare the potential landslide dam forming map. In this study, literatures related to landslide dams were reviewed and a landslide dam inventory was created from the data retrieved from the cases in the literatures. Based on the inventory, a susceptibility model of landslide dam formation after slope failure was proposed by logistic regression. 31 appropriate landslide cases with landslide dam formed and 31 corresponding landslide cases without landslide dam formed were selected from the inventory for the model regression. The parameters adopted for the model include landslide types, transporting factors and hydrological factors. The proposed model was verified by the other 10 cases in the inventory. The results show that the overall accuracy rate is 80.6% and the AUC of the ROC curves is 0.893; it reflects the facts that the proposed model is good enough for evaluating the susceptibility of landslide dam formation after slope failure. Based on the existing assessment models for landslides, including debris flow, debris slide (shallow landslide) and rock slide, and the susceptibility proposed by Tsai (2012) and the Central Geological Survey (2009), the susceptibility of landslide of the Kao-Ping River catchment could be calculated. Also, the susceptibility of landslide dam formation after slope failure was determined from the proposed model for the Kao-Ping River catchment. Then, the susceptibility of landslide dam development was determined by combining two sets of susceptibility mentioned above for the Kao-Ping River catchment. The potential landslide dam forming map along the river was also presented.
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