Modeling Competition of Consumption and CO2 Emission between Fossil Fuel and Low-carbon Energy: The Evidence from the United States
|Keywords:||Lotka-Volterra 模型;能源消耗量;二氧化碳排放量;化石燃料;低碳能源;Lotka-Volterra Model;Consumption of Energy;CO2 Emissions;Fossil Fuels;Low-carbon Energy|
Compared to fossil fuel, low-carbon energy has a characteristic of lower carbon dioxide emissions. For many countries, replacing fossil fuel with clean low-carbon energy is one of the important countermeasures to control or reduce carbon dioxide emissions. While greenhouse gases continue to spread and air temperature of the Earth continues to heat up, the competition or growth and decline relationships between two energies, fossil fuel and low-carbon energy, become very worthy of a lot of regards and discussions. This research used energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission data of U.S. and applied the modified biological ecology Lotka-Volterra model to explore the interactions as well as the future relationships of two energies. Either for energy consumption or for relative carbon dioxide emission amounts, model parameter simulation results revealed that there exists commensalism relationship among fossil fuel and low-carbon energy. Low-carbon energy could facilitate the growth of low-carbon energy while fossil fuel had no effect upon low-carbon energy. There are internal negative forces to suppress its own growth in fossil fuel. Another equilibrium analysis results forecasted that two kinds of energy will approach a stable equilibrium state in the long-term competing and will be used with coexistence in the future. The accuracy analysis results also showed that the applied model has good fitting and forecasting abilities. The decision-makers should cautiously select which type of energies to be used. It is not only the matter of how many carbon dioxide gases will be emitted but also a decision with significant impact on the global environment. This research demonstrates the feasibility of applying Lotka-Volterra model to explore the dynamic competing relationships between fossil fuels and low-carbon energy. Hopefully, the analysis method constructed by this research could become an energy assessment tool on which decision-makers rely, and contributes to environmental protection.
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