Title: 美國化石燃料與低碳能源之消耗與二氧化碳排放競合分析
Modeling Competition of Consumption and CO2 Emission between Fossil Fuel and Low-carbon Energy: The Evidence from the United States
Authors: 張志仁
Chang, Chih-Jen
Tsai, Bi-Huei
Keywords: Lotka-Volterra 模型;能源消耗量;二氧化碳排放量;化石燃料;低碳能源;Lotka-Volterra Model;Consumption of Energy;CO2 Emissions;Fossil Fuels;Low-carbon Energy
Issue Date: 2012
Abstract: 相較化石燃料,低碳能源有著較低二氧化碳排放的特性。而以乾淨的低碳能源取代化石燃料是全球許多國家控制或降低二氧化碳排放量的重要對策之一。因此,在溫室氣體不斷擴散、地球氣溫持續升高之際,化石燃料與低碳能源兩種能源間的競合與消長關係是非常值得關注與探討。本研究以美國為例,探討兩種能源消耗量與二氧化碳排放量彼此間的互動關聯以及未來的關係趨向,運用修正的生物生態學Lotka-Volterra模型進行研究。 參數模擬結果發現無論是在能源的消耗量,亦或是在能源的相對碳排放量上,化石燃料與低碳能源間係呈現片利共生動態關係,低碳能源可挹注化石燃料成長,而化石燃料雖未受低碳能源的影響,但其本身內部存在負向力量壓抑自身的成長。均衡分析結果預測兩種能源在長期競合下會達到穩定均衡狀態,未來將會被並存使用。準確度分析結果也顯示模型有良好的適配與預測能力。 能源如何選擇攸關二氧化碳氣體排放多寡,對地球環境有決定性的影響,決策者於選擇能源來源時須審慎為之。本研究證明以Lotka-Volterra模型探究化石燃料與低碳能源間動態競合關係的可行性,當中建構的分析方法,期能成為一個決策者倚重的能源選擇評估工具,為環境保護做出貢獻。
Compared to fossil fuel, low-carbon energy has a characteristic of lower carbon dioxide emissions. For many countries, replacing fossil fuel with clean low-carbon energy is one of the important countermeasures to control or reduce carbon dioxide emissions. While greenhouse gases continue to spread and air temperature of the Earth continues to heat up, the competition or growth and decline relationships between two energies, fossil fuel and low-carbon energy, become very worthy of a lot of regards and discussions. This research used energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission data of U.S. and applied the modified biological ecology Lotka-Volterra model to explore the interactions as well as the future relationships of two energies. Either for energy consumption or for relative carbon dioxide emission amounts, model parameter simulation results revealed that there exists commensalism relationship among fossil fuel and low-carbon energy. Low-carbon energy could facilitate the growth of low-carbon energy while fossil fuel had no effect upon low-carbon energy. There are internal negative forces to suppress its own growth in fossil fuel. Another equilibrium analysis results forecasted that two kinds of energy will approach a stable equilibrium state in the long-term competing and will be used with coexistence in the future. The accuracy analysis results also showed that the applied model has good fitting and forecasting abilities. The decision-makers should cautiously select which type of energies to be used. It is not only the matter of how many carbon dioxide gases will be emitted but also a decision with significant impact on the global environment. This research demonstrates the feasibility of applying Lotka-Volterra model to explore the dynamic competing relationships between fossil fuels and low-carbon energy. Hopefully, the analysis method constructed by this research could become an energy assessment tool on which decision-makers rely, and contributes to environmental protection.
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