|標題:||ARMs or FRMs？ ─以蒙地卡羅模擬術探討固定利率房貸(FRMs)與指數型房貸(ARMs)之成本現值差異|
ARMs or FRMs？─Compare the present value differences between ARMs and FRMs via Monte Carol Simulation
|關鍵字:||指數型房貸;現值成本模型;蒙地卡羅模擬術;Adjustable Rate Mortgages;Present Value Cost Model;Monte Carol Simulation|
為此，本文採用成本現值模型(Present Value Cost Model)，以台灣目前金融機構與金融市場的實際狀況，並參考國外相關之文獻及模型，來設立模型參數，透過蒙地卡羅模擬術，以數萬次模擬後得出之平均結果，探討不同情況下，指數型房貸(ARMs)與固定利率房貸(FRMs)究竟何者比較有利？以探求在台灣的制度及現狀下，借款人是否應相信指數型房貸(ARMs)包裝的美麗糖衣。
Individual mortgage market that was once held by some large banks in Taiwan currently comes into a serious competition due to the boundless of interest rate and the deregulation of banking industry. Especially in the recent two years, a good deal of banks put great efforts to propose ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) even though the interest rates continue to decline. The major reasoning behind this is that they believe that a low interest rate environment is good for loan borrowers. However, the crucial argument being concerned is that whether mortgagors are able to cut interest expenses via a new financial instrument (ARMs). In the points of view of Finance, there is no guarantee as to if ARMs is always good on behalf of loan borrowers within loan term unless interest rate keeps unchanged or continue to going down. Meanwhile, some banks expect that interest rate will not drop further in the ongoing future, so they propose FRMs (Fixed Rate Mortgages), with the historical lowest level, against ARMs to attract borrowers to make business. What this means is that nobody can really predict the direction of interest rate precisely. Questions we are about to examine is that whether ARMs is better than FRMs or vice versa. Also, the most interest of this research is to see which one is a better deal under a variety of personal tax brackets. In order to find out these, this study follows the “present value cost model” with import parameters based upon financial market conditions of Taiwan. Then we can further investigate if ARMs is beneficial to mortgage borrowers or if it is just a beautiful veil. Results are summarized as follows ：(1)Without Present Value Cost Model employed, borrowers will neglect total cash flows for mortgages if they just consider nominal interest rates.(2)Different personal tax brcket has no effect on comparing present value for ARMs and FRMs.(3)Floating discount rate is better than fixed discount rate because it’s much more reasonable to be fitted in the real situation.(4) The present value of ARMs will be larger than that of FRMs on the 11th year under normal interest rate situation.(5)Also, the present value of ARMs will be larger than that of FRMs on the 5th year when interest rate is historical low. (6)The present value of ARMs will be larger than that of FRMs on the 19th year when interest rate is high. (7)When index rate of ARMs is much more active, then it’s better for borrowers.(8)The present value for inverse floating rate mortgages is large than that of FRMs on the 12th year.(9)The present value of mixed rate mortgages (Fixed rate 4.25% for first 3 years) is larger than that FRMs on the 14th year.