標題: Uncertainty analysis by point estimate methods incorporating marginal distributions
作者: Chang, CH
Yang, JC
Tung, YK
土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
公開日期: 1-三月-1997
摘要: The model performance of an engineering system is affected by many variables subject to uncertainty. Point estimate (PE) methods are practical tools to assess the uncertainty features of a model involving multivariate stochastic parameters. Two PE methods have been developed for engineering applications. One is Rosenblueth's PE method, which preserves the first three moments of random variables and the other is Harr's PE method, which reduces the computations of Rosenblueth's method but only as appropriate for application to random variables with normal distributions. In this study, two algorithms are proposed to encompass the advantages of the two PE methods: computational practicality and the handling of mixture distributions. Through a numerical experiment, the proposed methods yielded mom accurate estimations than those of Rosenblueth's method with about the same amount of computation as Harr's method. The two proposed methods were also applied to estimate statistical moments of a pier scouring model output to demonstrate their performance in an engineering application.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11536/703
ISSN: 0733-9429
期刊: JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING-ASCE
Volume: 123
Issue: 3
起始頁: 244
結束頁: 250
顯示於類別:期刊論文


文件中的檔案:

  1. A1997WM26000010.pdf