The Development Forecasting of the III-V Semiconductor Industry in Taiwan — Using Delphi Method
Dr. Benjamin J.C. Yuan
|關鍵字:||三五族半導體產業;德菲法;技術預測;III-V Industry;Delphi Method;Technology Forecasting|
With the coming of the post-PC era, wireless communications has become the hottest star industry. And the demand for high frequency products is growing explosively. III-V semiconductor, with excellent high frequency property, is now widely accepted as the superior semiconductor material and has drawn lots of attention. With the great expectation, companies were set up one by one. Seeing that the successful model of vertical diaggregation of Taiwanese silicon industry, the entrepreneurs in the III-V industry was trying to copy the pattern of specialization and established the most complete III-V industry value chain in the world. It has always been an important issue, that if the development of the III-V industry will be smooth and successful. This research uses Delphi Method to forecast the development trend of the III-V industry in Taiwan. The forecasting is based on the experts’ opinions. We invite experts from different backgrounds to answer the questionnaires anonymously. The research scope includes the issues of both the market side and the technology side and the time frame is ten years from now. We also discuss the issues related to the industry developments in Taiwan. According to the experts’ forecast, the compound annual growth rate of the III-V industry in ten years will be between 16% and 20%. The most important application will be wireless communications as now, and the optical fiber communications will grow the fastest. We also anticipate that Taiwanese III-V industry will most likely become as successful as the silicon industry in six years and the foundry business will be the most successful segment in the value chain.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|