A Study on Trends of Developement of GaAs Industry in Taiwan From the Structure of Silicon Industry in Taiwan
Hook T. Y. Wang
Dr. Benjamin J. C. Yuan
|關鍵字:||技術預測;類比法;關鍵成功因素;Technology Forecasting;Analogy Method;Key Success Factor|
Following the rise of the wireless communications industry, Taiwan’s mobile phone industry is in the present stage moving towards becoming an ODM (original design manufacturer) with independent R&D ability. This industry is also gradually gaining “suggestion making rights” about what mobile phone components are chosen for specific models. These changes in this industry’s functioning will benefit Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry, helping with both investment and development. The present trend in this industry is the gradual completion of the vertical division of labor among up-, mid-, and downstream firms. In its mode of development and industrial structure, this industry resembles Taiwan’s silicon industry just over a decade ago. The question which now faces us is: can the successful development model and experience of the silicon industry be used to help the mobile phone industry achieve a new miracle? There are great expectations surrounding this question, and it deserves in depth research and investigation. In light of the resemblance noted above, for our research design we have chosen the following as our main research frame: forecasting the future of technology industries based on analogies with past industries—this can be called the “technology forecasting analogy method.” We gathered data relevant to Taiwan’s silicon industry’s development and to its main factors of success. At the same time, we collected data relevant to Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry. We proceeded by making comparisons between the silicon and GaAs (gallium arsenide) industries in terms of industrial structure and various other dimensional factors. From this comparison, we summed up the key factors of success for the GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry. Through in depth expert interviews, we came to understand the state of development of Taiwan’s GaAs (gallium arsenide) industry relative to those key factors of success. This understanding allowed us to predict potential development trends: this is knowledge that can help firms perform future development planning and appropriate resource layout. Our results also have reference value for related governmental units when they draft national policy.