Study of Justified Work Schedule Using DELPHI Method With Up-scaling Railway Project as Example
黃 台 生
|關鍵字:||鐵路工程,期程,德爾菲;專家經驗估算式;Scheduling Technique;Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method;Expert-estimating Method|
While the general public demands more on traffic and transportation thanks to the ever increasing national income, the Government though has its full gears on improving the highway network, highway transportation gets serious congestion by day in failing to cope with the growth of the numbers of automobile and motorcycle. Whereas the railway transportation for providing safe, and massive transportation capacity on schedule, the government hopes to attract the people to take train by improving hardware and software facilities, equipment and operation measures to upgrade railway transportation both in quality and quantity; to inhibit the growing numbers of automobile and motorcycle; and to promote economic growth once again. Consequently, railway transportation has become one of the major links in pushing forward the public reconstruction by the Government.According to documentary study, three methods, respectively, the Scheduling Technique, the Statistic Method and the Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method, are usually applied in estimating the length of work schedule. Wherein, the Scheduling Technique Method solves the total length of work schedule by multiplying the operational scale of key-route of the physical facilities and equipment on the key-route of the project operation by the unit work hour; however, it takes detailed itemized operation and quantity (that is, upon the completion of the design) for this Method to become applicable upon entering the phase of construction. As for the Statistic Method, data are available after lengthy assortment and categorization of massive related documentation that already have been published to solve the work schedule estimate formula, meaning massive manpower is required to be consumed periodically to recompile the data to update the estimate formula.The Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method for being comparatively easier to apply is popularly used among the work engineering and advisory institutes. In the past, expert-estimating has been always done by some senior engineers, meaning a very strong subjective sentiment is involved and it has never been easy to pass down the expert experience. Therefore, this study attempts to generalize opinions from the majority of experts with proved expertise by using the DELPHI Method to identify those certain and uncertain factors that affect the work schedule as well as to find out their relative parameters to recommend more objective expert-estimating formula for the reference by the work advisory institutes.
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