The Study on Relationship among Train Ridership, Stopping Schedule, and Frequency Strategies of High Speed Rail
|關鍵字:||高速鐵路;停站方式;票價;班次策略;運量;High Speed Rail;Stopping Schedule;Fare;Frequency Strategies;Ridership|
The supply attributes of High Speed Rail (HSR) such as train stopping scheme and schedule, fare and frequency strategies are the major components of HSR operational plan and have a great influence on its ridership. Previous studies on rail service scheme mostly assumed travel demand as an exogenous variable, and didn’t consider the interaction between supply strategies and travel demand. Furthermore, the HSR line is usually planned to be highly overlapped with the existing Conventional Rail (CR) corridors so as to serve the major market, since these corridors typically have large markets concentrated around and between the major cities. So, the train’s actual ridership on each link would be the results of demand-supply interaction for the whole HSR and CR network. Therefore, addressing the problems of how passengers react for each proposed service plan under the CR competition and how the HSR train ridership on each link is affected by passenger’s demand characteristics such as the value of time distribution, origin and destination pattern, etc. become important. In the first part of this study, we explore the situation that two trains compete one another on each link they serve and analyze how different HSR stopping schedule, frequency and fare strategies affect the HSR travel demand, market share and operator's operating profits under CR competition. Under the assumption of given CR schedules and fares, passengers’ optimal train choices are decided by minimizing their “generalized total travel time”, which is composed of different travel time components and fare, and a profit maximization mathematical programming model is formulated to determine the optimal dispatching sequence of different stopping scheme trains. In the second part, the study further continues to aim at the situation that three trains compete simultaneously on each link they serve. In this case we assume the optimal train choice of a passenger is decided by minimizing his “generalized total travel cost” instead of “generalized total travel time” to make the market share analysis under different HSR supply strategies easier. Then, the study further explore the effects of changes in passenger’s demand characteristics such as the value of time distribution, business/leisure trip ratio, etc. on HSR train’s dispatch strategies, ridership on each link and operator's operating profits. Finally, a case study and sensitivity analysis are described by using CR and proposed HSR in Taiwan west corridor as an example to illustrate the application of the models. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The strategy with discriminating fares for different stopping scheme trains would lead HSR to obtain more ridership and profits than those without. 2. When HSR train dispatch frequency is low, HSR train’s competition is decreased and then it is appropriate to dispatch trains with different skip-stop services. 3. For short-haul trips, business/leisure trip ratio has little influence on HSR train’s ridership. In conclusion, this study analyze the relationship among ridership, train stopping schedule, fare and frequency strategies for HSR, and the results can be used as guidelines on determining the optimal operational plans for HSR operators.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|