Extending the Lanchester's Square Law to Better Fit the Attrition in the Ardennes Campaign
Dr. Chih-Young Hung
|關鍵字:||孫子兵法;戰爭論;蘭徹斯特方程式;阿登戰役;Lanchaster equation;War game;Sun Tzu;On War;Ardennes Campaign|
The war is the human society universal existence one kind of phenomenon; the war special characteristic is joins battle bilateral will dashing. No matter whether history repeats itself or not, we still can learn a lot of useful lessons from it. People have been interested in studying and analyzing historical warfare for thousands of years. China's Sun Tzu first chapter said: military action is important to the nation, it is the ground of death and life, the path of survival and destruction, so it is imperative to examine it. The one who figures on inability to prevail at headquarters before doing battle is the one who has the least strategic factors in his side. The one with many strategic factors in his favor wins, the one with few strategic factors in his favor. Observing the matter in this way, I can see who will win and who will lose. The third chapter also said: so it is said that if you know others and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know others but know yourself, you win one and lose one; if you do not know others and do not know yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle. The war is the violent difficult work; the danger is its basic characteristic. The average person to the war impression, is similar to the humanity regarding the dangerous response is a fear. Joins battle both sides both to hope the affiliation by the attack enemy troop each kind of different social stratum goal, but gains the expectation the benefit. Since the humanity has been long-time continuously penetrates each kind of technological development or the science computation, hopes to accurate solution to war result. General Karl Von Clausewitz says in his book On War that attack and defend are a pair of concepts for mutual action and reaction. He considered that defense is more than passive waiting and resistance. The best defense must include the swift and vigorous assumption of the offense. In the shift between offense and defense is a period of deadlock during which both sides seek to seize a key strongpoint, collect intelligence and set up logistics and draw up the next operation plan. Previous researchers did not consider the deadlock of the shift between attack and defense. General Karl Von Clausewitz believes that offense and defense in warfare are a state of interaction and response. The transition between offense and defense will have a short span of time difficult to define. No matter is the real troops maneuvers, the game theory, the tradition war game drill, the hi-tech computer war game simulation and so on is it with Lanchaster equation. In this research, we try to improve Bracken’s and Chen’s work to significantly better fit our extended Lanchester model into the Ardennes Campaign live data. And after revising Lanchester equation, joins battle the bilateral military strength loss besides the discussion, further penetrates the real diagnosis analysis discussion both armies offense and defense in transation question. Realizing that the rapid increase in hi-technology is going to affect warfare, the armed forces are transforming themselves for the digital age. They need analytic tools to help make the best choices possible, and chief among these are good measures of effectiveness that can demonstrate the value of information in terms of military outcomes. The contemporary greatest military achievement is not to construct the greatest weaponry, but is to affiliate the unification of software and hardware machinery with the thoughtful management mechanism to prevent the war from happening.This is precisely our diligently goal. In this research, we try to improve Bracken’s and Chen’s work to significantly better fit our extended Lanchester model into the Ardennes Campaign live data. According to our numerical experimental result, we improved Bracken’s work by 39.26%, and Chen’s work by 19.51%.The contribution of this research is that we propose a much better qualitative analysis model for the explanation of modern combat.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|
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