Integrated Reliability Analysis on Water Supply Systems- Shihmen Reservoir as a Case Study
|關鍵字:||時間序列;缺水指數;可靠度分析;供水系統;石門水庫;濁度;風險;time series;shortage index;reliability analysis;water supply systems;shimen reservoir;turbidity;risk|
Raw water sources in Taiwan mainly come from reservoirs. Water treatment plants are commissioned to purify raw water to become drinking water. Through water distribution network, purified water can be delivered to the water consumers. Recently, the high turbidity of raw water induced by intensive rainfalls overloads the water treatment plants and causes water supply temporarily disrupted in the Shihmen Reservoir water supply area. Previous studies generally focus on the quantity of water rather than its quality. As consequence, it leads to underestimate the risk of water shortage and overestimate the resiliency, and vulnerability. This study presents a water supply system reliability analysis methodology and develops its evaluation model that takes into account both quality and quantity of water. Historical flow records and data generated by the time series model are both used in the water supply system reliability evaluation model. Results show that the indices such as water shortage index, resiliency and vulnerability increase if raw water turbidity is considered. Conversely, the reliability of water supply system reduces. Though the effect of higher turbidity is not found significant on system reliability in long term, short term events such as typhoons that can cause high turbidity still cannot be ignored.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|
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