The Technology Foresight of Cloud Computing Industry on 2020 Taiwan: An Application of Scenario Analysis
|關鍵字:||雲端運算;技術前瞻;情境分析法;Cloud Computing;Technology Foresight;Scenario Analysis|
After the global financial crisis in 2008, price fluctuation and natural disasters came in succession, and made dramatic change in macroeconomic environment. Thus many companies suffered from the shock are forced to cut down operating costs or just go out of business. Cloud computing gets a good chance to rise from the difficult business environment, and triggers a technology-innovated new business model to help companies expand and reduce IT resources elastically, as paying for the utilities such as water, electricity, according to the actual use. This study mainly applies the six major steps in scenario analysis developed by Stanford Research Institute (SRI), and focuses on the topic: “2020 Taiwan's Cloud Computing Technology Foresight.” This study first, finds out the focus of policy-developing issues and key decision-making factors of cloud computing industry as the essential elements to conduct scenario analysis, and then analyzes primary data, including interviews with experts, and questionnaires, and secondary data, including industry reports, books, websites, etc, in order to get the key decision factor (KDF) and the external driving forces. After identifying driving groups with high degree of uncertainty and impact according to the result of the survey with experts, three axes are selected to stand for uncertainty: “changes in market,” “changes in institution,” and “changes in technique.” This study constructs 8 (=23) kinds of basic scenarios with these three axes, and then ask experts to select the most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely happened scenarios objectively and respectively: “be the only leader,” “fall under the cloud,” and “surging to compete.” Finally, this study tries to find adaptive strategies based on these three scenarios for the future development of cloud computing industry in Taiwan as references.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|