Analysis of the Influence of Cross Strait Direct Shipping Link on the Volume of Container Transshipment through Taiwan’s Ports
|關鍵字:||兩岸直航;灰預測;Cross-Strait Direct Shipping Link;Gray Prediction Method|
The "Assessment of the Impact of Direct Cross-Strait Transportation" announced on August 15, 2003 by the Executive Yuan clearly states that direct cross-strait shipping could cut shipping time and reduce shipping costs, enhance the efficiency of the distribution of goods, increase freight volume at seaports, and increase international shipping firms’ willingness to operate in Taiwan’s ports. Direct cross-strait shipping could also lessen the potential negative impact on Taiwan’s shipping status after the completion of Shanghai’s new deep-water port on Big and Little Yangshan Islands. However, it has been more than two years since the “cross-strait shipping agreement” has been implemented. Whether it has achieved anticipated benefit or not is an issue worth exploring. First, the study collected and classified nearly eight years of data about the volume of Container Transshipment through Taiwan’s ports. A comparison of the volume of transshipments before and after the implementation of the “cross-strait shipping agreement” was made to further explore the influence of the Direct Cross-Strait Shipping Links on the volume of container transshipment through Taiwan’s ports. Next, the study applied the Gray Prediction Method to forecast the volume of Container Transshipment. Based on the analysis described above, the main conclusions are Direct Cross-Strait Shipping Links have a positive impact on the volume of Container Transshipment in Taiwan, but future growth rates will be limited. The benefit of Cross Strait Direct Shipping Link is mainly on the increase of the volume of regional container transshipments, rather than on that of intercontinental container transshipments. Also, southern China is the main hinterland for shipping links, while central and northern China having more development potential. Finally, the result of the gray prediction has shown that the volume in the first quarter of 2011 will be a slight increase over the previous quarter.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|