Scenario Analysis and Aggregate Risk Assessment for Hazardous Air Pollutants from Science Base Industrial Park
|關鍵字:||有害空氣污染物;危害指數;模式模擬;健康風險;空間及方向性分析;砷化物;永續環境系統分析;Hazardous air pollutants;hazard index;modeling;health risk;spatial and directional impacts;arsenic;sustainable environmental systems analysis|
|摘要:||新竹科學園區所排放的有害空氣污染物(Hazardous Air Pollutants, HAPs)可能影響周遭民眾健康，本研究因而建立一套系統流程評估分析HAPs於周遭地區之濃度分佈及暴露風險。研究流程主要包括案例區重點污染物選取與相關資料建立、模式模擬與比較、情境分析、風險評估及周界期望濃度分析等五大部分，重點污染物主要依據案例區監測結果及其有害程度篩選。模式主要採用ISCST3及AERMOD二模式模擬園區周界HAPs分布情形，並比較兩套模式模擬之差異；依據各年不同排放量之HAP情境模擬結果分析HAPs的空間分佈；再進一步依各情境HAPs空間分佈及採用致癌及非致癌風險值，分別評估單一污染物及多污染物對於周界居民可能造成的風險。且針對有較顯著危害性HAP以等去除率分析欲達周界期望濃度值所需之理想減量率。
Hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted from Hsinchu Science-based Industrial Park (HSIP) may significantly affect the health of surrounding residents. A systematic procedure was thus established for analyzing HAP distributions and assessing residential exposure risks. The procedure includes five major steps: selection of major pollutants, model simulation, scenario analysis, risk assessment and expected ambient concentration analysis. Major pollutants were selected based on their emission quantites and TWA-TLV values. The ISCST3 and AERMOD models were applied to simulate spatial an temporal HAP distributions. Simulated distributions were used to analyze spatial HAP impacts on surrounding areas and results obtained based on both models were also compared. Lifetime incremental cancer risk and Hazard Index (HI) were applied to estimate residential cancer and noncancer exposure risks from both single and multiple HAPs. Finally, required reductions of emissions for achieving several expected ambient qualities were estimated based on the uniform removal method for HAPs with high potential hazard. Several scenarios were analyzed based on emission data sets in 2008- 2010, and scenario S was established to simulate actual emission. While a low speed wind occurs, high HAP concentration is likely to occur at the downwind areas of the spot with dense HAP sources. The result for scenario S shows higher HAP concentration and wider impact because its total emission quantity is significantly larger than those of other scenarios. Since ISCST3 and AERMOD use different definitions for calm wind, significant difference exists between the results simulated by both models under low speed winds. According to the simulated result, maximal arsenic concentration mainly occurs at area about 0.1-0.6km to the western boundary of HSIP. However, the actual risk may be higher because the simulated result is lower than monitored values. The maximal HI of chlorine is 8.6 and is significantly higher than other major HAPs. For arsenic and chlorine and to achieve the cancer risk not exceeding 10-6 or HI less than 1, about 90% reduction of all pollution sources is required.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|