標題: 新產品規劃模型之研究
A study of Foresight-based New Product Planning Model
作者: 沈伯璋
Shen , Po-Chang
袁建中
科技管理研究所
關鍵字: 技術地圖;專利分析;情境分析法;數位家庭;technology roadmap;patent analysis;scenario analysis;digital home
公開日期: 2009
摘要: Cooper & Klein (1998)曾進行一個新產品開發方案的耗損率調查,結果指出每7項新產品的開發案中約有4項可進入到開發階段而約1.5項是能真正導入量產,但只有1項的新產品會成功。在充滿不確定性與風險性的大環境中,新產品開發是一項很耗費成本且失敗率高的開發活動,如何選擇最優先的產品作開發來創造最大價值,將是產品規劃模型成敗的主要關鍵。技術地圖為一種近十多年來發展出來、具結構性的技術預測工具,定義出企業未來會面臨產品與技術的挑戰,並有助構思解決方案,經此過程,企業本身只需將資源專注於培養和使用目前優先發展的技術,進而整合產品發展規劃,為顧客創造價值。 本研究將以產品規劃策略的觀點,分析英國劍橋大學製造研究所發展的技術地圖,結合市場情境規劃與專利分析,希望藉由簡單的圖表,將複雜的新產品規劃相關流程予以單純化,以簡易的模式指引新產品地圖的目標,提供產業界作為新產品開發的策略性思考工具。 個案探討為H家電廠商在數位家庭六個不同情境下,相關產品功能發展趨勢。藉產品規劃模型的五大步驟,先了解所在產業現況,使用市場情境分析聚焦數位家庭的場景,以探討影響未來數位家庭需求的產品功能;並以技術發展分析將六個情境所需技術分類說明,最後透過功能與技術的專利分析結果歸納出數位家庭產品的規劃策略在於健康照護領域。藉由本研究產品規劃模型,提供廠商來自市場需求、技術、專利三面向的完整訊息,操作上流程化易於維持與再製作,期望對實務上產品規劃有些許的貢獻。
Cooper & Klein had done an investigation in rate of depletion of NPD(new product development), however, the result indicated that four out of seven projects of NPD could proceed to developing phase, while only 1.5 had a chance to step into mass production. At the end only one product would be successful. In such environment full of uncertainties and risks, NPD is a costly activity with high failure rate. Under such circumstances, how to choose highest priority for future products to create greatest value will be the key successful factor to product planning model. Technology roadmap is a structural tool for technology forecasting that has been developed for a decade to define the challenges of product and technology that enterprises will face in the future. At the same time it helps come up with solutions. Through this process, enterprises focus their resources only on developing current priority technology in order to integrate product development plans, creating value for customers. This study will be in a perspective of product planning strategy, using technology roadmap developed by Institute of Manufacturing Technology of University of Cambridge, combining with scenario planning and patent analysis. We want to simplify the complex process of new product planning by using simple charts and point out the goal of new product roadmap by a simple model, providing the industry as a strategic thinking tool for NPD. Case study is to find out developing trend of next-generation product features in six different scenarios of digital home for H home appliance manufacturer through five steps of product planning model. First, realize home appliance industry current status. Then focus on digital home scenarios by using scenarios planning to explore the impact of digital home needs in product features. Next step, assess technical capability of product features by analyzing technology development. Finally, to summarize that the strategic plan for next generation digital home products with patent analysis lies in health care fields. The product planning model provides enterprises integrated information from the market demand, technology as well as patents. At same time it’s easy to maintain and reproduce, expecting the model can contribute to practical product planning slightly.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079735501
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/45503
Appears in Collections:Thesis


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