標題: 科技評估整合模式之研究
A Hybrid Model for Technology Assessment
作者: 沈永祺
Shen, Yung-Chi
林亭汝
Lin, Grace T.R.
科技管理研究所
關鍵字: 技術評估;詮釋性分析;模糊德菲法;模糊層級分析法;Technology Assessment;Interpretative Analysis;Fuzzy Delphi Method;Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
公開日期: 2009
摘要: 技術評估為一多準則決策問題,是影響企業或國家競爭力的關鍵。本研究主要目的在於建構一項整合性的技術評估方法,包含詮釋性分析、模糊德菲法、及模糊層級分析法,並以有機發光二極體顯示技術為例,加以驗證本研究所建構之整合性技術評估方法。詮釋性分析用以判別投入目標科技的研究所可能帶來的正向展望與負向問題;模糊德菲法則是用以彙整專家對於技術評估準則重要性的判斷;模糊層級分析法是用以求得技術評估準則的權重值,同時消除存在於專家判斷中的語義模糊。展望與問題所得到的權重之差異,可作為以此技術為基礎之產業的研發規劃參考,以及用以決定是否投入該技術。本研究以台灣有機發光二極體顯示器產業作為研究對象。自2005年,台灣的有機發光二極體產業的全球市場佔有率已位居第三位。本研究以台灣的有機發光二極體顯示器技術作為一範例,示範一家公司或一個國家如何評估及定位一新興技術,以進行資源配置決策。最後,本研究根據研究結果提出相關策略及管理上的建議。
Technology assessment, which influences the advantages of firms or countries, is a multi-criteria decision issue. This study proposes a hybrid approach integrating the interpretative analysis, the fuzzy Delphi method and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) to construct a technology assessment model for the emerging technology of organic emitting light diode (OLED) display. The interpretative analysis is used to identify the positive prospects and the negative problems within the development of aimed technology field. The fuzzy Delphi method is applied to integrate the experts’ judgments toward the importance of technology assessment criteria. The FAHP is adopted in this study to eliminate the ambiguity and vagueness within experts’ thinking and derive the weights of technology assessment criteria. The weights distributed to the prospects and the problems and the difference between prospects and the problems can serve as a reference for the industry applying this technology in order to make R&D planning and strategy and decide whether to invest the targeted technology or not. In this study, Taiwan is a research base for its OLED display industry which has occupied the third position in the global market since 2005. The purpose of this paper is to offer an example as to how a technology firm or even a country can evaluate or position certain emerging technology in the process of resource investment decision-making. Finally, some strategic and managerial suggestions according to the results are drawn in this research for related policy makers.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079635804
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/42992
Appears in Collections:Thesis