Risk Assessment for the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Shortage in the Taichung Area
|關鍵字:||氣候變遷;蒙地卡羅;系統動力學;Climate change;Monte carlo;System dynamics|
Rapid economic development has caused a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Climate change has also increased the fluctuation of regional river flow between wet and dry seasons, seriously impacting regional water resource management. The impact of climate change has thus become an important issue in regional water resource management. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation method to evaluate the impact of climate change on water supply shortage in the Taichung area. The proposed model integrates weather generator, surface runoff, and water distribution models. This study uses this model to evaluate the impact of climate change on water shortage risk for existing water supply systems and the efficiency of adding two water supply measures, “artificial lakes” and “cross-basin water transport.” The weather data generator applies the first order Markov Chain and two probability distribution models including exponential distribution and normal distribution. The Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model serves as a surface runoff model to simulate basin outflow. The water distribution model in this study was developed based on System Dynamics. Simulation results indicate that climate change has increased the annual river flow for both Ta-chia River and Da-an River basins. However, it has also increased temporal variations in river flow between wet and dry seasons. For existing water supply systems, this threatens the agricultural water supply but slightly improves the public water supply. Two additional water supply measures, “artificial lakes” and “cross-basin water transport,” can greatly reduce the risk of regional water shortage irrespective of climate change. As expected, the climate change will again increase the water shortage risk for both agriculture and public water uses. The results of this study are a valuable reference for the risk assessment of the impact of climate change on regional water supply.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|
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