標題: Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind
作者: Hsu, Yung-Chia
Tung, Yeou-Koung
Kuo, Jan-Tai
防災與水環境研究中心
Disaster Prevention and Water Environment Research Center
關鍵字: Dam overtopping;Flood frequency;Sampling method;Frequency model
公開日期: 1-Jan-2011
摘要: This study develops a probability-based methodology to evaluate dam overtopping probability that accounts for the uncertainties arising from wind speed and peak flood. A wind speed frequency model and flood frequency analysis, including various distribution types and uncertainties in their parameters, are presented. Furthermore, dam overtopping probabilities based on monthly maximum (MMax) series models are compared with those of the annual maximum (AMax) series models. An efficient sampling scheme, which is a combination of importance sampling (IS) and Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) methods, is proposed to generate samples of peak flow rate and wind speed especially for rare events. Reservoir routing, which incorporates operation rules, wind setup, and run-up, is used to evaluate dam overtopping probability.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-010-0435-7
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/26128
ISSN: 1436-3240
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-010-0435-7
期刊: STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
Volume: 25
Issue: 1
起始頁: 35
結束頁: 49
Appears in Collections:Articles


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  1. 000286200500004.pdf