Title: Modeling two-vehicle crash severity by a bivariate generalized ordered probit approach
Authors: Chiou, Yu-Chiun
Hwang, Cherng-Chwan
Chang, Chih-Chin
Fu, Chiang
運輸與物流管理系 註:原交通所+運管所
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
Keywords: Two-vehicle accidents;Bivariate ordered probit;Bivariate generalized ordered probit;Severity level
Issue Date: 1-Mar-2013
Abstract: This study simultaneously models crash severity of both parties in two-vehicle accidents at signalized intersections in Taipei City, Taiwan, using a novel bivariate generalized ordered probit (BGOP) model. Estimation results show that the BGOP model performs better than the conventional bivariate ordered probit (BOP) model in terms of goodness-of-fit indices and prediction accuracy and provides a better approach to identify the factors contributing to different severity levels. According to estimated parameters in latent propensity functions and elasticity effects, several key risk factors are identified driver type (age >65), vehicle type (motorcycle), violation type (alcohol use), intersection type (three-leg and multiple-leg), collision type (rear ended), and lighting conditions (night and night without illumination). Corresponding countermeasures for these risk factors are proposed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.11.008
ISSN: 0001-4575
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.11.008
Volume: 51
Begin Page: 175
End Page: 184
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