Title: Modeling crash frequency and severity using multinomial-generalized Poisson model with error components
Authors: Chiou, Yu-Chiun
Fu, Chiang
運輸與物流管理系 註:原交通所+運管所
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
Keywords: Crash frequency;Crash severity;Multinomial-generalized Poisson;Error components
Issue Date: 1-Jan-2013
Abstract: Since the factors contributing to crash frequency and severity usually differ, an integrated model under the multinomial generalized Poisson (MGP) architecture is proposed to analyze simultaneously crash frequency and severity-making estimation results increasingly efficient and useful. Considering the substitution pattern among severity levels and the shared error structure, four models are proposed and compared-the MGP model with or without error components (EMGP and MGP models, respectively) and two nested generalized Poisson models (NGP model). A case study based on accident data for Taiwan's No. 1 Freeway is conducted. The results show that the EMGP model has the best goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy indices. Additionally, estimation results show that factors contributing to crash frequency and severity differ markedly. Safety improvement strategies are proposed accordingly. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.030
ISSN: 0001-4575
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.03.030
Volume: 50
Begin Page: 73
End Page: 82
Appears in Collections:Articles

Files in This Item:

  1. 000314191600010.pdf