Title: A dynamic analysis of motorcycle ownership and usage: A panel data modeling approach
Authors: Wen, Chieh-Hua
Chiou, Yu-Chiun
Huang, Wan-Ling
運輸與物流管理系 註:原交通所+運管所
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
Keywords: Motorcycle;Panel data;Discrete choice;Regression;Accident
Issue Date: 1-Nov-2012
Abstract: This study aims to develop motorcycle ownership and usage models with consideration of the state dependence and heterogeneity effects based on a large-scale questionnaire panel survey on vehicle owners. To account for the independence among alternatives and heterogeneity among individuals, the modeling structure of motorcycle ownership adopts disaggregate choice models considering the multinomial, nested, and mixed logit formulations. Three types of panel data regression models - ordinary, fixed, and random effects - are developed and compared for motorcycle usage. The estimation results show that motorcycle ownership in the previous year does exercise a significantly positive effect on the number of motorcycles owned by households in the current year, suggesting that the state dependence effect does exist in motorcycle ownership decisions. In addition, the fixed effects model is the preferred specification for modeling motorcycle usage, indicating strong evidence for existence of heterogeneity. Among various management strategies evaluated under different scenarios, increasing gas prices and parking fees will lead to larger reductions in total kilometers traveled. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.006
ISSN: 0001-4575
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.006
Volume: 49
Begin Page: 193
End Page: 202
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