標題: A dynamic analysis of motorcycle ownership and usage: A panel data modeling approach
作者: Wen, Chieh-Hua
Chiou, Yu-Chiun
Huang, Wan-Ling
運輸與物流管理系 註:原交通所+運管所
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
關鍵字: Motorcycle;Panel data;Discrete choice;Regression;Accident
公開日期: 1-十一月-2012
摘要: This study aims to develop motorcycle ownership and usage models with consideration of the state dependence and heterogeneity effects based on a large-scale questionnaire panel survey on vehicle owners. To account for the independence among alternatives and heterogeneity among individuals, the modeling structure of motorcycle ownership adopts disaggregate choice models considering the multinomial, nested, and mixed logit formulations. Three types of panel data regression models - ordinary, fixed, and random effects - are developed and compared for motorcycle usage. The estimation results show that motorcycle ownership in the previous year does exercise a significantly positive effect on the number of motorcycles owned by households in the current year, suggesting that the state dependence effect does exist in motorcycle ownership decisions. In addition, the fixed effects model is the preferred specification for modeling motorcycle usage, indicating strong evidence for existence of heterogeneity. Among various management strategies evaluated under different scenarios, increasing gas prices and parking fees will lead to larger reductions in total kilometers traveled. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.006
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/20941
ISSN: 0001-4575
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.03.006
期刊: ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
Volume: 49
Issue: 
起始頁: 193
結束頁: 202
顯示於類別:期刊論文


文件中的檔案:

  1. 000313845300023.pdf