標題: Designing intelligent disaster prediction models and systems for debris-flow disasters in Taiwan
作者: Kung, Hsu-Yang
Chen, Chi-Hua
Ku, Hao-Hsiang
資訊管理與財務金融系 註:原資管所+財金所
Department of Information Management and Finance
關鍵字: Debris-flow prediction models;Disaster prevention;Back-propagation network;Decision support system;Mobile multimedia communications
公開日期: 1-四月-2012
摘要: Effective disaster prediction relies on using correct disaster decision model to predict the disaster occurrence accurately. This study proposes three effective debris-flow prediction models and an inference engine to predict and decide the debris-flow occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction models are based on linear regression, multivariate analysis, and back-propagation networks. To create a practical simulation environment, the decision database is the pre-analyzed 181 potential debris-flows in Taiwan. According to the simulation results, the prediction model based on back-propagation networks predicted the debris flow most accurately. Moreover, a Real-time Mobile Debris Flow Disaster Forecast System (RM(DF)(2)) was implemented as a three-tier architecture consisting of mobile appliances, intelligent situation-aware agents and decision support servers based on the wireless/mobile Internet communications. The RM(DF)(2) system provides real-time communication between the disaster area and the rescue-control center, and effectively prevents and manages debris-flow disasters. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.083
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/15533
ISSN: 0957-4174
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2011.11.083
期刊: EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
Volume: 39
Issue: 5
起始頁: 5838
結束頁: 5856
顯示於類別:期刊論文


文件中的檔案:

  1. 000301155300123.pdf