標題: Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency
作者: Hwang, Ruey-Ching
Siao, Jhao-Siang
Chung, Huimin
Chu, C. K.
資訊管理與財務金融系 註:原資管所+財金所
Department of Information Management and Finance
關鍵字: Discrete-time hazard model;Merton model;Robust Wald test;Stochastic frontier model
公開日期: 1-十二月-2011
摘要: We use a stochastic frontier model with firm-specific technical inefficiency effects in a panel framework (Battese and Coelli in Empir Econ 20:325-332, 1995) to assess two popular probability of bankruptcy (PB) measures based on Merton model (Merton in J Financ 29:449-470, 1974) and discrete-time hazard model (DHM; Shumway in J Bus 74:101-124, 2001). Three important results based on our empirical studies are obtained. First, a firm with a higher PB generally has less technical efficiency. Second, for an ex-post bankrupt firm, its PB tends to increase and its technical efficiency of production tends to decrease, as the time to its bankruptcy draws near. Finally, the information content about firm's technical inefficiency provided by PB based on DHM is significantly more than that based on Merton model. By the last result and the fact that economic-based efficiency measures are reasonable indicators of the long-term health and prospects of firms (Baek and Pagan in Q J Bus Econ 41:27-41, 2002), we conclude that PB based on DHM is a better credit risk proxy of firms.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11123-011-0210-x
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/14837
ISSN: 0895-562X
DOI: 10.1007/s11123-011-0210-x
期刊: JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS
Volume: 36
Issue: 3
起始頁: 263
結束頁: 273
顯示於類別:期刊論文


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