標題: Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: the Taiwan case
作者: Huang, JH
Min, JCH
管理科學系
經營管理研究所
Department of Management Science
Institute of Business and Management
關鍵字: September 21 earthquake;tourism industry;visitor arrivals;seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)
公開日期: 1-四月-2002
摘要: The most serious earthquake in Taiwan of the 20th century struck the central region of the island on September 21, 1999. The so-called September 21 Earthquake, measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale, dealt a sharp blow to the Taiwanese tourism industry, with the worst impact being suffered by the international tourism sector. To revitalize the dramatic decline in inbound tourist flows, the government of Taiwan implemented a series of swift countermeasures. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether Taiwan tourism has rebounded completely from the crisis. This research establishes a model for Taiwan's inbound demand to predict the volume of visitor arrivals after the quake (September 1999 to July 2000). The forecasts are based on the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model which are then compared with the actual volume of visitor arrivals to analyze the recovering status. Empirical results indicate that the island's inbound arrivals have not yet fully recovered from the earthquake's devastation after 11 months. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00051-6
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/14487
ISSN: 0261-5177
DOI: 10.1016/S0261-5177(01)00051-6
期刊: TOURISM MANAGEMENT
Volume: 23
Issue: 2
起始頁: 145
結束頁: 154
顯示於類別:期刊論文


文件中的檔案:

  1. 000173623400005.pdf