標題: Transmission and control of an emerging influenza pandemic in a small-world airline network
作者: Hsu, Chaug-Ing
Shih, Hsien-Hung
運輸與物流管理系 註:原交通所+運管所
Department of Transportation and Logistics Management
關鍵字: Dynamic model;Epidemic;Air travel;Connectivity
公開日期: 1-Jan-2010
摘要: The avian influenza virus H5N1 and the 2009 swine flu HIM are potentially serious pandemic threats to human health, and air travel readily facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. However, past studies have not yet incorporated the effects of air travel on the transmission of influenza in the construction of mathematical epidemic models. Therefore, this paper focused on the human-to-human transmission of influenza, and investigated the effects of air travel activities on an influenza pandemic in a small-world network. These activities of air travel include passengers' consolidation, conveyance and distribution in airports and flights. Dynamic transmission models were developed to assess the expected burdens of the pandemic, with and without control measures. This study also investigated how the small-world properties of an air transportation network facilitate the spread of influenza around the globe. The results show that, as soon as the influenza is spread to the top 50 global airports, the transmission is greatly accelerated. Under the constraint of limited resources, a strategy that first applies control measures to the top 50 airports after day 13 and then soon afterwards to all other airports may result in remarkable containment effectiveness. As the infectiousness of the disease increases, it will expand the scale of the pandemic, and move the start time of the pandemic ahead. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.004
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/14127
ISSN: 0001-4575
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.07.004
期刊: ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
Volume: 42
Issue: 1
起始頁: 93
結束頁: 100
Appears in Collections:Articles


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