標題: 航空潛力市場影響因素分析與模化
Analyze and Model the Determinants of Airline Potential Market
作者: 張復志
汪進財
Chang, Fu-Chih
Wong, Jinn-Tsai
運輸與物流管理學系
關鍵字: 直航航線;運量影響因素;樞紐機場;Tobit模型;Direct routes;Determinants of routes flights;Tobit Model
公開日期: 2017
摘要: 近年亞太地區航空市場伴隨著經貿發展成長快速,許多探討關於航線運量成長的研究中,多半以現有航空公司實際有營運之航點作為模型探討樣本,其影響因素的解釋能力僅能針對現有開發之航線。然而,本研究認為在衡量影響航班運量的模型中,應納入航空公司實際未營運之航線,才不會使得模型解釋能力偏頗,更能全面性地深入討論亞洲連結全球主要機場航線的影響因素。本研究以航線之直航航班數作為模型之依變數,然而航空公司未經營航線,旅客便需要藉由轉機的方式抵達,因此由定期航班資料庫無法觀測直航航班資料,此種依變數受限類型之計量經濟模式,符合Tobit模型之特性與設定架構,故本研究以Tobit模型作為分析方法。研究結果顯示航線距離、航線類型為影響航線直航航班重要因素,當國家競爭力指數及機場規模提升時,能有效增加航線直航的吸引力,雖然直航航線兩端點機場規模較小,旅客現階段可能以樞紐機場提供之中轉航班抵達迄點機場,但是如果機場規模能增加,亦或是航空公司投入經營,未來仍有很大的潛力能開闢直航航線。
This study focus on the determinants of Asia direct routes.With the economics and tourism growth, there are many study has discussed about the factors on the routes flights. However, the direct routes sample discussed are just including the routes airline has operated. The result would be biased .As a result, the direct routes in this study are including operated by airlines and have not operated by airlines , which dependent variable meets the structure of Tobit Model. The results shows that direct routes distance and the routes type have negative influence on direct flights. If the airports would evaluate the scale of international passengers and Country Competitiveness Index, the actual passengers having a trip with hub airports might reveal the potential of direct flights.
URI: http://etd.lib.nctu.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT070353670
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/141241
Appears in Collections:Thesis