Constructing the Crisis Warning Model in Taiwan's Private University by Using Educational Affairs Indicators and Financial Indicators
|關鍵字:||危機預警;因素分析;羅吉斯迴歸;私立大專校院;財務指標;Crisis Warning;Factor Analysis;Logistic Regression;Private University;Financial Indicator|
Since the transition to open policy, the new university has increased year by year in the Higher Education. Some colleges or technical ones have transformed to the Technology Academy and University of Science and Technology at the same period. The number of universities maintained between 96 to 105 from 1971~1986, and then increased to 158 when 2016, once, the highest number was up to 164, which means, increased by more than 50 in 30 years. The number of students has increased from 440 thousand at 1986 to 1.31 million at 2016, increased by more than two times than before. We can say the Elite Type Higher Education has changed to the Universal Type Higher Education. The amount of enrollment almost was more than the number of high school students when the number of universities increased significantly. The gap has increased year by year due to oversupply. Moreover, the reduction in the birth rate caused the difficulties of enrollment got worse. In recent years, universities have been poor for business and then began to stop enrolling, to look for mergers and even to exit. According to the prediction of the Ministry of Education on the number of new students of universities, there will be about only 16 million at 2028, which means will decrease more than 140 thousand than the number at 2015. Taiwan's higher education has faced a great crisis. It is imperative to improve the quality of university. Universities that can’t continue to operate should be gradually withdrawn. This research collected the data of both the academic affairs indicators and the financial indicators of Taiwan's private universities, within 2012 to 2015, to construct the Crisis Warning Model of Taiwan's Private Universities with Logistic Regression Analysis using the affecting variables after Factor Analysis. After the Factor Analysis, the research extracted four Factor dimensions which may affect the possible crisis of Private University: "X1: School Scale", "X2: Risk Capability", "X3: Operational Capability", "X4: Capital Investment". Results of Logistic regression analysis tells the four factors are significant and the overall prediction accuracy rate is 84%. The "X1: School Scale" is a key factor in the Crisis Warning Model of the private school. Schools with a certain scale surely can have sufficient income to maintain the normal operation and quality of the school.