標題: Estimating the Risk of River Flow under Climate Change in the Tsengwen River Basin
作者: Wei, Hsiao-Ping
Yeh, Keh-Chia
Liou, Jun-Jih
Chen, Yung-Ming
Cheng, Chao-Tzuen
土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
關鍵字: hydrological extreme;extreme typhoon events;SOBEK;risk analysis;climate change
公開日期: 1-Mar-2016
摘要: This study evaluated the overflow risk of the Tsengwen River under a climate change scenario by using bias-corrected dynamic downscaled data as inputs for a SOBEK model (Deltares, the Netherlands). The results showed that the simulated river flow rate at Yufeng Bridge (upstream), Erxi Bridge (midstream), and XinZong (1) (downstream) stations are at risk of exceeding the management plan's flow rate for three projection periods (1979-2003, 2015-2039, 2075-2099). After validation with the geomorphic and hydrological data collected in this study, the frequency at which the flow rate exceeded the design flood was 2 in 88 events in the base period (1979-2003), 6 in 82 events in the near future (2015-2039), and 10 in 81 events at the end of the century (2075-2099).
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w8030081
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/133488
ISSN: 2073-4441
DOI: 10.3390/w8030081
期刊: WATER
Volume: 8
Issue: 3
起始頁: 0
結束頁: 0
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