A Forecast Model on the Competition of Various Retail Formats in Taiwan
|關鍵字:||零售業;Lotka-Volterra模型;市占率;競爭信號;預測準確性;retail industry;Lotka–Volterra model;market share;competition signal;forecasting accuracy|
The retail industry is an important component of the supply chain of the goods and services that are consumed daily and competition has been increasing among retailers worldwide. Thus, forecasting the degree of retail competition has become an important issue. However, economic growth and seasonal patterns in the level of retail activity dramatically reduce forecasting accuracy. This paper attempts to develop a forecasting methodology based on the Lotka–Volterra model for retail format competition subject to economic growth and seasonal patterns. A modified Lotka–Volterra model with an additional constraint on the summation of market share is proposed. In addition, the mean absolute error is used to measure the forecasting accuracy of the market share. Real-world Taiwanese retail data from 2000 is used to validate the proposed forecasting methods. Our methodology successfully indicates the importance of data pre-processing when using the Lotka–Volterra model. For revenue data of the retail format, out of the three signals (growth, competition and seasonal signals), the competition signal should be the only signal that is contained for the best Lotka–Volterra forecasting. Our methodology assists the retail format in the development of management strategies and the decision of investment timing. We also demonstrate how the Lotka–Volterra model can be used to forecast the degree of industry competition.
|Appears in Collections:||Thesis|