標題: 矽穿孔與學術原創技術之評估模型應用
Applications of a technology assessment framework in through-silicon via and academically original technologies
作者: 李延春
Lee, Yen-Chun
Lin, Tyng-Ruu
Huang, Shih-Pin
Lim, Sirirat Sae
Pao, Hsiao-Tien
Chiang, Chi
Huang, Chi-Yo
Yu, Ya-Wen
關鍵字: 技術評估;技術選擇;新創技術;模糊多準則決策;矽穿孔;原創性技術;Technology assessment;Technology selection;Innovative technology;Fuzzy MCDM;Through-silicon via (TSV);Original technology
公開日期: 2015
摘要: 過去十年間,新創技術評估在科技管理學門中,已成為一項重要的學術研究領域,不論研究對象是屬於私部門或是公部門範疇,已受到越來越多的研究學者們所關注。在私部門方面,對於身處經濟、技術、社會多元因素摻雜的複雜環境中的企業,必須從各種替選的技術方案中,去評估、選擇與投資一新興技術,以維持相對優勢;另外在公部門方面,有效地評估與選擇重要的學術原創性技術,將有益於國家在全球市場中,建立策略上的競爭優勢。雖然技術評估的學術研究已持續了四十年,也發現它在處理許多技術評估難題上的價值,但在實務上仍存有強烈的需求,期望可以找到更有效且系統化的技術評估方法。 然而新創技術的評估與選擇為一多評準決策問題,可以藉由整合不同的方法來加以改良。此外,由於技術本身的多元性與複雜性,如何確認最佳技術方案,將變得愈來愈棘手。為了解決這個在決策上的難題,本論文旨在建構一個新創技術的評估程序方法,該方法同時整合了詮釋性分析、深度訪談法、及數種嵌入模糊理論的多評準決策方法,以建構一個複合的新創技術評估與決策模型,並可同時將其分別運用在私部門與公部門之研究對象。詮釋性分析是用來闡述新創技術的發展前景與當前的問題,複合的模糊多準則決策方法與深度訪談法則是用來建構一決策模型,並據以用來進行評估、排序及決選最佳的新創技術方案。 關於私部門範疇的分析對象,我們選擇了在半導體產業中新興的矽穿孔技術作為實證探討案例,主要是因為台灣在全球半導體製造業中,佔有舉足輕重的地位;而對於公部門範疇的分析對象,我們選擇了學術原創性技術作為實證探討案例,主要是因為由科技部所推行的萌芽計畫在台灣是一項史無前例的大學創業輔導計畫,其涉及早期技術的評估與研究成果的選擇。 在最後的結論部分,我們將汲取實證分析結果,基於經濟、技術、社會與環境層面所需要考量到的因素上,嘗試提出本論文的一些看法與建議。對於私部門方面的研究結果,我們期望可以幫助台灣半導體產業的高階經理人,能夠更策略性地去制定研發方向與配置相關資源;對於公部門方面的研究結果,我們也期望協助萌芽計畫的決策者與專業經理人,可以有效地發掘具有潛力的原創性技術,以便轉化這些研究成果,未來能成功地朝向商業化發展。
Over the past decade, technology assessment (TA) of innovative technologies has become an important research domain in technology management field that has received increasing attention among researchers in both private and public sectors. In the private sector, companies must access, select, and invest in emerging technologies with comparative advantage to various technology alternatives on the basis of multiple economic, technological, and social criteria in a complicated environment. On the other hand, in the public sector, effectively assessing and selecting key original technologies in academic institutions can help countries establish their strategic advantage in the international market. Although TA has been developed over the past four decades and has found its value in solving several technological problems, a strong need to find more effective and systematic methods for TA remains. However, assessment and selection of innovative technologies involves a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process that can be improved by integrating different methods. Moreover, it is becoming increasingly difficult to identify optimal technologies due to their increasing variety and complexity. To address these decision-making challenges, this research aims to propose a technology assessment framework integrating interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA), in-depth interviews, and several MCDM methods embedded with fuzzy sets theory to construct a hybrid technology selection model for both private and public sectors. The IPA approach is used to identify the prospects of and the problems in the development of proposed technologies. Furthermore, in-depth interviews are used to explore as much criteria information as possible from a group of experts on given assessment topics and to survey technology alternatives. Hybrid fuzzy MCDM methods together with an in-depth interview technique are also deployed to construct decision-making models for conducting technology assessment as well as ranking technology alternatives. With regard to the empirical case to be analyzed in the private sector, we chose the emerging semiconductor through-silicon via (TSV) technologies since Taiwan has emerged as the forerunner in worldwide semiconductor production. By contrast, our empirical case study in the public sector focuses on original technologies in academic institutions since the Germination Program launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) is a pioneering entrepreneurial funding project in Taiwan that involves early-stage technology assessment and project selection in universities. In conclusion, our research will draw upon our empirical results which will contribute to all economic, technological, social, and environmental factors concerned. In the case of private sector, our study will help senior managers in Taiwan’s semiconductor industry to better direct R&D and allocate their resources strategically. For the public sector, our study will guide policy-makers and practitioners of the academic Germination Program in exploring potential and original technologies and to then translate their R&D achievements into successful commercialization in the future.
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