The Relationship between the Fluctuations of Ship Prices and Freight Rates in the International Tramp Shipping Industry
Institute of Business and Management
|關鍵字:||Hedonic函數;不定期海運;共整合分析;衝擊反應;Hedonic Function;Tramp Shipping;Cointegration Analysis;Impulse Response|
In order to solve the problem of asymmetric data, this study has firstly applied Hedonic function to construct a set of comparable ship price indices. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is then formulated to investigate the relationship between the price fluctuations of shipbuilding, secondhand ship, scrapping ship and freight markets in the international tramp shipping industry. By utilizing the co-integration analysis, this study suggests that the price fluctuations from the four aforementioned markets are closely interdependent and show a stable long-term equilibrium relationship. In the short term, the previous price fluctuation of scrapping ship market could be viewed as an indicator for the price fluctuations of both new shipbuilding and secondhand ship markets. When the market price structure shows temporary disequilibria, the freight market has the most sensitive adjustment, different from the new shipbuilding market that reacts in fairly sluggish. In responding to the price shock of scrapping ship market, the price adjustment of secondhand ship market is strong and quick; however, when triggered by the price shock of freight market, its price adjustment is moderate and can last for a long while. In addition, the price shock of secondhand ship market plays a crucial role to trigger the impulse response of freight market. The price adjustment of scrapping market is mainly caused by the price shock of freight market. In reflection with the concern of the steel cost on shipbuilding, the price shock of scrapping ship market has the largest impact on the price adjustment of shipbuilding market.
Journal of Management and Systems
|Appears in Collections:||Journal of Management and System|
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