A dynamic alert model of ship escaping from Taiwanese international harbor and a remedy method of possible missing wave and tide data during typhoon periods
|關鍵字:||船舶預警模式;神經網路;波浪統計;Alert Model of Ship Escape;Neural Network;Wave Statistics|
Based on the original ANN model that was developed in the first three years of a four-year sequential project by connecting typhoon’s paths and scales to conditions of ship escape from Hua-Lien harbor, the project in this year will modify the last model considering typhoon paths based on the definition of the central weather bureau. The corrected ANN model will be expected to be more accurate and stable than the original one. Risk analysis will be also applied to determine the possible predicted time delay at a confidence level of 95%. Furthermore, the model will be constructed in modules by GUI for easily operating the model by engineering staffs of Hua-Lien harbor bureau. Another aim of this project is to remedy the possibly missing tide and wave data during the period of an approaching typhoon due to instrument loss or damage. The missing data often happens at the time of the strongest typhoon that can cause the maximum wave heights. Thus, it is very important to evaluate the possible maximum wave height during the period of each typhoon, even when the instrument for waves is beyond work. The statistical properties, such as wave- height and wave-period their for both An-Ping and Taipei harbors will be also studied in this project. The well developed model in the future can provide the ships in the Hua-Lien harbor with duly alarms for escaping from severe wave impacts. The proposed integrated ANN alarm model can provide a good reference for harbor managements on ship mooring safety and is available for reducing harbor damages due to the typhoons.
|Appears in Collections:||Research Plans|
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